FNUS75 KGJT 061406
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYON FIRE...SOUTHERN UTE BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
806 AM MDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0738 MDT ON AUGUST 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME BUILD-
UPS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOW WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THE BURN SITE BUT BE AWARE OF THIS LOW LEVEL THREAT.
OTHERWISE A DRIER FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DISTANT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
                    POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND
                    EAST.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING
                    UPVALLEY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH. AFTER
                    1500 BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........57-63%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING UPVALLEY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH.
                    AFTER 1500 BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 MPH.


$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...RICH GUSTAFSON  FMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110806.PAYON.01/GJT