FNUS73 KAPX 081448 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE 2 2...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1048 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON AUGUST 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE BURN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL CONVERGE OVER THE BURN SITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ERRATIC NATURE TO THE DIRECTIONS...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MINIMAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LAKE BREEZE WIND CONVERGENCE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE END OF THE BURN. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA HEADING INTO EARLY EVENING WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT IN OVERHEAD. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........80 AT IGNITION...MAX 82. RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4100-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........40 40 40 40 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW TEMP............80 82 82 81 RH..............47 43 43 42 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E E 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 SMOKE DISP......200 100 100 200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........39 38 37 38 39 39 46 58 63 63 63 63 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............79 77 75 71 68 65 64 63 62 61 61 60 RH..............45 52 58 68 76 84 84 84 87 90 90 96 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E S S S SW SW W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .FRIDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110808.SUNRI.01/APX