FNUS73 KMQT 081316 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR M-2 NORTH 8-8-11...USFWS SENEY NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 916 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON AUGUST 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL TRACK EAST...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY. BEHIND THE FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... PLAN ON BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 53 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE EAST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS INCREASING TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (91) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (487) INCREASING TO GOOD (526) LATE. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-7100 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........17 22 28 33 39 44 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............64 72 78 79 79 78 RH..............80 66 56 55 54 57 GENERAL WIND....E 4 SE 6 SE 6 S 7 S 6 S 6 GENERAL GUST....10 10 10 15 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.43 136 258 426 526 454 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 4500 6400 7100 6600 5700 HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 63. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 88 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 26 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (8). MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-100 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.04 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........47 41 51 75 77 73 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............77 72 67 66 65 63 RH..............58 67 77 79 82 88 GENERAL WIND....S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 GENERAL GUST....10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.388 229 51 35 36 20 MIX HGT (FT)....4900 2100 400 300 200 100 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 77. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 54 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.04 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........65 67 69 68 65 59 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............66 70 75 76 76 76 RH..............86 78 65 57 56 55 GENERAL WIND....SW 6 SW 6 W 7 NW 7 NW 7 NW 9 GENERAL GUST....10 10 15 15 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...MICHELS REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110808.M2NOR.01/MQT