FNUS73 KDDC 091420 FWSDDC SPOT FORECAST FOR LSM ISLANDS...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 920 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON AUGUST 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND AROUND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE BURN SITE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SURGES SOUTH AGAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SITE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS INCOMING RAIN. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH BY NOON. WINDS SHIFTING AGAIN TO NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH BY 5 PM CDT. CWR.................10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL BY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........10 20 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............85 93 95 RH..............50 45 35 20 FT WIND......E 9 SE 10 SE 17 20 FT WIND GUST.12 15 22 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 8 SE 10 SE 15 WIND GUST..10 15 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING VARIABLE BY 5 AM CDT. CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 20 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........45 54 66 86 89 92 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............90 79 74 71 68 66 RH..............38 56 66 77 84 91 20 FT WIND......N 12 NE 10 NE 10 NE 10 E 8 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 13 13 13 112 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..N 12 NE 10 NE 10 NE 10 E 8 E 5 WIND GUST..15 13 13 13 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 6 6 5 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING BY MORNING. THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH. CWR.................70 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-5100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........94 94 93 93 92 91 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............64 69 76 80 82 83 RH..............97 80 65 56 54 53 20 FT WIND......E 15 E 18 E 18 E 16 E 15 E 13 20 FT WIND GUST.20 30 30 25 20 15 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 12 E 14 E 14 E 13 E 12 E 10 WIND GUST..20 30 30 25 20 15 HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SUGDEN REQUESTED BY...WILLIAM WALN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110809.LSMIS.01/DDC