FNUS72 KJAX 091553
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HUTTO SPRING...USDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1153 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM AND
THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE HUTTO SPRING AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHEST AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. ANTICIPATE GUSTY AND SHIFTING
WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS AND HOTTER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. MARGINALLY LOW RH'S ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGH
DISPERSION ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
THURSDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDINESS. (55-70 PERCENT).
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2700 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....38.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)       NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)..........56     68     70
WEATHER COV......CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE.....TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP.............92     95     94
RH...............62     54     55
20 FT WIND.......W 11   W 10   W 9
20 FT WIND GUST..15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT).....3500   5000   5000
TRANSPORT WIND...W 12   W 13   W 13
DISPERSION INDX..40     39     39
CHC OF PCPN (%)..40     60     60
LAL..............3      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40-50 PERCENT.
LVORI...............7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........74     84     84     81     61     61
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE   NONE
TEMP............90     85     81     79     77     76
RH..............62     75     85     89     93     97
20 FT WIND......W 8    W 7    SW 6   SW 6   SW 5   W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2700   1700   1700   1000   400    400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12   SW 10  SW 10  SW 8   W 7    W 7
LVORI...........7      7      7      7      7      7
DISPERSION INDX.26     7      7      5      5      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     25     20     20     10     10
LAL.............4      2      2      2      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5700 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....74.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110809.HUTTO.01/JAX