FNUS74 KLZK 102137 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR FODDERSTACK...U.S.FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 437 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1601 CDT ON AUGUST 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THUNDERSTORMS IN NW ARKANSAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THE MAIN AXIS OF STORMS SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY FAYETTEVILLE TO PINE BLUFF TONIGHT WITH STORMS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THAT LINE. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER A STORM WILL AFFECT THE BURN SITE...THUS THERE IS ONLY A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN AWAY FROM THE MAIN STORMS WILL FALL AT THE FIRE. LASTLY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL BUT STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY PUT OUT SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD BRIEFLY GIVE NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 MPH. TIMING ON SUCH A THING IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEM IN THE MORNING DUE TO STORM OUTFLOW. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 3-5 MPH. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXPANSIVE IN THE MORNING FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN MIXING HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS. WIND DIRECTION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VARIABLE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL EXIST IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 79. RH..................MAX 70 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERALL. SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............92 91 90 88 86 85 84 83 83 82 82 81 RH..............42 45 49 52 54 57 59 62 63 64 65 68 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 5 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 5 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 TRANSP WIND DIR.S E E E E E E E E SE SE S TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 10 8 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 94. RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............80 81 83 85 88 90 91 92 93 93 93 93 RH..............69 70 66 61 57 53 50 48 47 47 46 48 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S EYE LVL WND SPD.3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW W SW S S SE TRANSP WIND SPD.5 3 3 3 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40 $$ FORECASTER...C DALTON REQUESTED BY...DARRELL BARLOW TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110810.FODDE.02/LZK