FNUS73 KAPX 111039 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BLOCKS 4 56...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 639 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHTER TODAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THOUGH...OUT OF THE WEST AND WEST SOUTHWEST. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND PRETTY MUCH THE SAME MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL RESULT IN LOWER HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DO NOT FORESEE ANY WIND SHIFTS AT THE BURN SITE TO BE OF CONCERN...AND THE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION IS JUST ABOUT ZERO. DECENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. A ROGUE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN...CHANCES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO ZERO. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........78 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 8200-9600 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1800) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1800). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........27 43 43 43 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............78 79 80 80 79 RH..............39 38 36 38 41 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......18001700180017001700 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........40 40 41 41 41 30 30 30 37 37 37 34 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............78 75 72 69 67 64 62 61 60 59 58 58 RH..............45 54 61 68 73 78 84 84 87 87 90 90 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 10 10 5 5 SMOKE DISP......160014001100500 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81. RH..................MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9200-9500 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1400). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........34 52 52 52 70 70 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............59 62 71 78 80 80 RH..............90 87 68 56 52 54 20 FT WIND......W 3 W 3 W 6 W 7 SW 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 600 1200 1200 1400 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110811.SOUTH.01/APX