FNUS75 KCYS 111928
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR DEER CREEK  1...CASPER DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
128 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1311 MDT ON AUGUST 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER EAST CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BILLINGS MONTANA...SOUTHWEST TO JEROME IDAHO.
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND WILL IMPACT THE BURN AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST. ADDITIONALLY...AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THAT
WILL CREATE ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 MPH. WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST
                    10 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AFTER 230 PM.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (204500-238600 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE
                    EARLY EVENING...DECREASING TO 6 TO 9 MPH AFTER
                    9 PM.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (2900-123100 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (29800-70900 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CLAYCOMB
REQUESTED BY...IC SHORT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110811.DEERC.02/CYS