FNUS74 KEPZ 111727
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BEAVER FIRE...STATE OF NEW MEXICO FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1127 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1058 MDT ON AUGUST 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THAT HIGH PRESSURFE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE
PUMPING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...PROVIDING THE FUEL
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH VERY LOW (2 OR 3) HAINES INDICES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........FAIR (44000 KT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 4 KNOTS.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........POOR (33500 KT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110811.BEAVE.01/EPZ