FNUS75 KGJT 111537 AAA
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYON FIRE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
937 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0706 MDT ON AUGUST 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY SPARK A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FIRE SITE. A THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS PRODUCING STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING ONCE
AGAIN TAKES PLACE. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT ALSO LOOKS TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEST 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING
                    BECOMING WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
                    INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
                    NEAR 25 MPH...POSSIBLY STRONGER NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......UP TO 5500 FT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING
                    INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL IN BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5 MPH LATE IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO LESS THAN 2000 FEET AROUND SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 11 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT
                    5 TO 10 MPH THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11400 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...RICH GUSTAFSON  FMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110811.PAYON.01/GJT