FNUS73 KMQT 111122 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR M-2 NORTH...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 722 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON AUGUST 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 45 PERCENT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY SET OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS TODAY REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT SEEM MORE LIKELY TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE TO COME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD TURN WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69 AT IGNITION...MAX 79. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS WEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (397) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (480) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (681) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2300-3600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4800-6700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 7100-7600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 3600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........43 48 49 47 46 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............69 77 78 78 77 RH..............57 47 46 47 52 GENERAL WIND....W 7 W 7 W 6 SW 6 SW 6 GENERAL GUST....15 15 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.397 588 661 640 287 MIX HGT (FT)....3600 5900 7300 7100 3600 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 60. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 96 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 11 TO 25 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (13). MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........45 45 44 43 45 48 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............76 70 65 63 62 60 RH..............55 69 82 86 89 96 GENERAL WIND....SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 GENERAL GUST....10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.126 35 13 30 40 30 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 400 100 300 300 200 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 80. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 56 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (405) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (955) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300-7300 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........50 53 58 61 62 64 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............64 70 77 79 80 79 RH..............86 73 60 56 57 59 GENERAL WIND....SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 6 GENERAL GUST....10 10 15 15 15 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.30 70 405 885 874 670 MIX HGT (FT)....300 600 3100 6800 7300 6700 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...TITUS REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110811.M2NOR.01/MQT