FNUS73 KAPX 121342 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR CAMP TEN RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 942 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A POPUP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IF ANY) ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFTER 1 PM. TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 82. RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7500-8100 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1300). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........56 56 62 62 62 64 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............77 78 79 80 80 80 RH..............54 52 50 49 49 49 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 SMOKE DISP......120013001300120012001000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 58. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 1 TO 2 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........64 64 60 60 60 60 60 60 66 66 66 73 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............79 76 74 72 69 67 65 63 62 61 59 59 RH..............50 58 62 66 73 78 84 87 90 93 96 96 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76. RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........73 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............59 62 68 73 75 73 RH..............96 90 78 66 60 66 20 FT WIND......S 1 S 1 S 3 S 5 S 5 S 4 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 5 $$ FORECASTER...ANDREW SULLIVAN REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110812.CAMPT.01/APX