FNUS73 KAPX 121351 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BLOCKS 4 56...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 951 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1005 EDT ON AUGUST 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF POPUP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IF ANY) ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1 PM. TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 83. RH..................66 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1300). TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........36 55 55 55 64 64 64 64 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............71 75 78 79 80 81 81 80 RH..............66 60 56 54 52 51 51 52 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......900 110013001300130012001000800 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO 2 TO 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........64 64 52 52 52 52 52 52 63 63 63 72 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............79 77 75 72 69 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 RH..............56 60 66 73 81 84 84 87 87 87 90 93 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......600 300 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77. RH..................MIN 62 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 7 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............61 63 69 74 76 75 RH..............93 90 76 66 62 66 20 FT WIND......S 0 S 0 S 3 S 5 S 6 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 400 900 500 300 $$ FORECASTER...ANDREW SULLIVAN REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110812.SOUTH.01/APX