FNUS73 KAPX 121536 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE RX 2 3...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1136 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A POPUP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE TO THE EAST OF THE BURN AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IF ANY) ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........76 AT IGNITION...MAX 81. RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-8200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1300). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........70 70 70 70 73 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW TEMP............76 78 79 79 79 RH..............58 52 51 51 51 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 SMOKE DISP......1300120012001100900 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 58. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........73 73 64 64 64 60 60 60 67 67 67 73 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............78 76 74 71 69 66 64 63 62 61 60 59 RH..............50 56 59 66 73 81 87 90 90 90 90 93 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...ANDREW SULLIVAN REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110812.SUNRI.01/APX