FNUS72 KJAX 121058 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR HONEY PRAIRIE...FFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 658 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0700 EDT ON AUGUST 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH UPPER 90S LIKELY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR THE 105 TO 108 RANGE. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FORMING DURING THE PEAK HEATING...AROUND 2 TO 4 PM AND MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...BUT CANNOT NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF PULSE SEVERE STORM THAT CREATES DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND DISPERSIONS BELOW 75. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 98. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....57. CHANCE OF PCPN......30-40 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........22 32 38 40 42 52 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............74 81 92 96 97 94 RH..............95 76 58 46 42 47 20 FT WIND......W 1 W 1 W 3 W 5 NW 5 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 4 7 10 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....400 1600 3600 4400 5500 6100 TRANSPORT WIND..W 3 NW 3 NW 6 NW 6 NW 8 NE 10 DISPERSION INDX.2 2 3 27 55 86 CHC OF PCPN (%).5 5 15 20 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....3. CHANCE OF PCPN......30-40 PERCENT. LVORI...............8. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........52 35 35 29 20 20 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............91 85 81 78 77 75 RH..............53 72 83 89 93 97 20 FT WIND......NE 6 E 8 E 7 SE 6 SE 3 E 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....6100 1700 1700 1000 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 10 SE 12 SE 12 SE 9 SE 5 SE 5 LVORI...........8 8 8 8 8 8 DISPERSION INDX.86 30 30 5 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 30 30 30 20 10 LAL.............3 3 3 3 2 2 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF PCPN......30-40 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...KEITH MOUSEL TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110812.HONEY.01/JAX