FNUS72 KJAX 121157
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SF 2C...FPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
757 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON AUGUST 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH UPPER
90S LIKELY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR THE 106 TO 109 RANGE.
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40 PERCENT
RANGE.

THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FORMING DURING THE PEAK HEATING...AROUND 2
TO 4 PM AND MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE CHANCE
OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...BUT CANNOT NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
BRIEF PULSE SEVERE STORM THAT CREATES DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60
MPH.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND DISPERSIONS BELOW 75. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 98.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-6600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....52.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........36     43     46     46     52
WEATHER COV.....              CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............88     95     98     98     95
RH..............75     56     47     46     54
20 FT WIND......NW 3   NW 5   W 6    N 5    NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5             10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1700   3400   6600   6600   5800
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 3   NW 6   NW 7   NW 7   NE 8
LAL.............1      1      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........52     37     37     31     21     21
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............92     85     81     79     77     76
RH..............54     69     79     85     90     94
20 FT WIND......NE 1   S 2    SE 3   E 3    SE 2   SE 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5800   1700   1700   1000   300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 8   E 7    E 7    SE 6   SE 5   SE 5
LAL.............3      3      3      3      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...TRABERT
REQUESTED BY...DYLAN SHOEMAKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110812.SF2C_.01/JAX