FNUS75 KGJT 140347
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG A FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
947 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2007 MDT ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL PUMP MOISTURE OVER THE
BURN SITE TODAY WHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY
NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FIRE OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING OVER THE BURN SITE. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVERS ALLOWING THEM TO DROP A LOT OF RAIN IN
A SHORT TIME. SOME MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER AND
NEAR THESE SLOWER MOVING STORMS. THINGS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 9PM
ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE
MUCH LESS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................5.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................5.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 11 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...JEFF DAVIDS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110813.BIGAF.01/GJT