FNUS75 KGJT 131436
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYON FIRE...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
836 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0734 MDT ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED INITIALLY AND OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD NEAR SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM PRINGLE
REQUESTED BY...RICH GUSTAFSON  FMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110813.PAYON.01/GJT