FNUS75 KBYZ 142114
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE PINEY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1448 MDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...WIND SHIFT TO DOWNSLOPE POSSIBLE AROUND 1800 AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 2000...

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT OVER THE FIRE BECAUSE UPSLOPE WINDS ARE
KEEPING WESTERLY RIDGETOP WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN ON THE FIRE. AS
SOON AS THE FIRE AREA BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE SHADING THE UPSLOPE
WILL CEASE AND THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF
MIXING DOWN BEFORE WEAK INVERSION BEGIN TO SET UP. THE AIRMASS IS
UNSTABLE AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FIRE BUT WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ONLY A MODERATE RECOVERY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
MONDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND
UNSTABLE. BORSUM


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/WESTERLY 8 TO 13 MPH
                    AROUND 1800. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MAX HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................13 PERCENT.
LAL.................3...9 TO 15 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS LIGHT AND SLOPE ORIENTED WITH A SWITCH
                    TO WESTERLY 8 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BORSUM
REQUESTED BY...ASHLEY POWELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110814.LITTL.01/BYZ