FNUS75 KGJT 141948
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY PARK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
148 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 MDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A SHORT-LIVED MONSOONAL SURGE ON SUNDAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL DOMINATE...AS THE LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL ONLY INCREASE A NOTCH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...FORECAST VALUES FOR 6300 FEET...

.MONDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY...INCREASING TO 5-10
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    12300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    WEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...RANDY CHAPPELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110814.DRYPA.01/GJT