FNUS72 KJAX 141049 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR HONEY PRAIRIE...FFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 649 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0629 EDT ON AUGUST 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INITIALLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMING EARLY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. EXPECT SHIFTING WINDS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN PRIOR DAYS. SPOTS FORECASTS FOR HONEY PRAIRIE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN IN THE EVENING...WITH RAIN CHANCES OF AROUND 50 PERCENT FROM 6 PM TO 8 PM WITH CHANCES DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT BY 10 PM. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DECREASED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN ADDITION TO DRIER AIR... DISPERSION WILL VALUES OF AROUND 70 TO 85 ARE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH... WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH LIKELY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................2 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-3800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........WEST 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....67. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........46 54 60 62 70 70 WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE.... TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............73 81 89 93 94 93 RH..............95 90 70 58 49 54 20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 5 W 7 W 10 W 12 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.4 8 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....700 1500 2500 2500 3500 3800 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 W 9 W 14 W 14 W 16 W 16 DISPERSION INDX.3 18 56 51 69 69 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 30 40 60 60 LAL.............2 3 3 3 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....4. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. LVORI...............8. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........70 52 48 48 40 38 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............88 82 78 76 75 73 RH..............58 70 80 86 94 95 20 FT WIND......W 8 W 5 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....3800 1600 1600 1000 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 W 9 W 9 W 8 W 8 W 8 LVORI...........8 8 8 8 8 8 DISPERSION INDX.54 7 5 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 30 30 30 20 20 LAL.............4 3 3 3 2 2 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BY AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-6700 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....88. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...KEITH MOUSEL TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110814.HONEY.01/JAX