FNUS72 KMLB 141039
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP F5 7 E5...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...GOOD MORNING. VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING...VARYING
BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN A SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE MORE
EASTERLY (090 DEGREES) THAN INDICATED BELOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE BURN SITE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EMANATING SOME DISTANCE FROM
THE PARENT STORM. IN ADDITION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
ITSELF WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPARKING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT PUSHES
INLAND OVER COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY.

NOTE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT
BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH /0.30-0.40/ OF RAIN FELL
AT THE PROPOSED BURN SITE LATE LAST EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH THIS
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
                    7 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....32.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....            SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCH
WEATHER TYPE....            TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............82  84  87  89  91  92  91  90  88  86  84  82
RH..............79  74  65  61  58  56  58  60  63  68  72  74
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   SW  S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..3   5   7   7   8   8   8   9   9   9   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.5               10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............5.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 8
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....32.

$$

FORECASTER...KELLY
REQUESTED BY...MIRANDA CUNNINGHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110814.JDSPF.01/MLB