FNUS75 KRIW 142006
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTON POINT...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
206 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1318 MDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL DRAW IN INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWER OR WEAK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
AFTER 1530 THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED BUT MORE NUMEROUS
MAINLY LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY COOL...DRY AND STABLE AIR.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1530 AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76 AT 8200 FEET AND 68 AT 10200 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT AT 8200 FEET AND 25 PERCENT AT 10200 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH EXCEPT NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS
                    ALONG THE FRONTIER CREEK. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-57 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 2100.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS
                    10 TO 12 MPH EXCEPT NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONTIER CREEK AND
                    SOUTHWEST ALONG THE CALDWELL CREEK WITH DECREASING WINDS
                    ALONG THE FRONTIER CREEK AFTER 1000.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71 AT 8200 FEET AND 63 AT 10200 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT AT 8200 FEET AND 35 PERCENT AT 10200 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12
                    TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON EXCEPT NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONTIER
                    CREEK AT THE SAME SPEEDS. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ABOVE 10200
                    FEET. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.9 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...ASHLEY POWELL
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110814.NORTO.01/RIW