FNUS72 KMLB 150953 FWSMLB SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP F3 4...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 553 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON AUGUST 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SOME VARIABILITY TOWARDS MORE WESTERLY POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODELS BACKING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY MID AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS IS THE RESULT OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TRYING TO FORM. FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE INLAND...INSTEAD KEEPING IT PINNED ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH MAY BE NEAR THE BURN SITE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. GREATER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RACES EASTWARD...ALSO DUE IN PART TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING. LATE IN THE DAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST WITH BRIEF PULSING STRONG ELEMENTS (I.E. WIND/HEAVY RAIN) POSSIBLE BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (ERRATIC DIRECTION) MAY EMANATE SOME DISTANCE FROM PARENT STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OFTEN OCCURS WELL OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION IN STORMS. IF THIS FORECAST BECOMES UNREPRESENTATIVE DURING THE DAY DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL THE OFFICE FOR AN UPDATE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SURROUNDING SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....38. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............81 84 87 88 90 92 90 89 88 86 84 82 RH..............79 72 65 63 60 52 60 61 63 68 74 79 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S SW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 9 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....4. LVORI...............6. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....24. $$ FORECASTER...SEDLOCK REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110815.JDSPF.01/MLB