FNUS72 KMLB 151018
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR KP 24...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
618 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON AUGUST 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SOME VARIABILITY
TOWARDS MORE WESTERLY POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODELS INCREASING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TOWARDS
10 MPH AT TIMES. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAINED PINNED ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATE MORNING. GREATER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RACES EASTWARD
...ALSO DUE IN PART TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING. SOME STORMS
MAY HAVE DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS (ERRATIC DIRECTION) MAY EMANATE SOME DISTANCE FROM PARENT STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
OFTEN OCCURS WELL OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION IN STORMS.

IF THIS FORECAST BECOMES UNREPRESENTATIVE DURING THE DAY DO NOT
HESITATE TO CALL THE OFFICE FOR AN UPDATE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LATER
                    IN THE AFTERNOON SURROUNDING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
                    MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING. POSSIBILITY OF SOME VARIABILITY
                    MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AT TIMES.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL IN THE EARLY MORNING INCREASING TO 4500-5500
                    FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....44.

TIME (EDT)      9A  10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO
WEATHER TYPE....SHW TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............79  83  87  89  92  94  92  91  89  87  84  81
RH..............81  74  65  61  54  49  52  56  59  63  70  77
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   8   9   10  10  9   7   6   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   6   10  10  12  12  10  9   9   9   8   7

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.
LVORI...............9.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....32.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...PAUL MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110815.KP24_.04/MLB