FNUS73 KAPX 152203 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR CAMP TEN...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 603 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON AUGUST 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...LEADING TO A COUPLE DAY STRETCH OF RAIN FREE WEATHER. QUIET AND COOL TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...SOME SHALLOW FOG AND EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ALL GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. BUT...LAKE BREEZE PUSH OFF LAKE HURON MAY TURN WINDS INTO THE EAST AT THE BURN SITE AFTER 3 PM...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH. INLAND RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AREAWIDE...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A TIME. PRECIP...RAIN FREE OVERALL. BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A DECENT BUILD-UP OF CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ANYTIME BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........4 1 0 1 4 6 8 11 12 13 14 15 WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG TEMP............76 74 71 65 60 57 55 53 52 51 50 49 RH..............41 44 50 65 83 92 95 100 98 98 100 100 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N 20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AFTER 2 PM. TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 85. RH..................63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 6 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR (200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........5 5 5 15 60 65 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE SHWR SHWR TEMP............49 53 67 78 83 83 RH..............100 96 63 43 34 33 20 FT WIND......N 0 N 0 W 2 N 2 SE 2 SE 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 100 100 100 100 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110816.CAMPT.01/APX