FNUS73 KAPX 161201
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BARRENS...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
801 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL KEEP THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT
FOR THE DAY. WHILE THE PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST...THE LOCAL TERRAIN WILL AFFECT THE DIRECTION AS WELL.
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
BOARDMAN RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS IF THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INTO THE BURN SITE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO RISE TO AROUND 45
PERCENT QUICKLY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........80 AT IGNITION...MAX 83.
RH..................39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 2 TO
                    7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6900-8300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   50  50  50  55
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............80  81  82  82  82
RH..............39  35  32  30  32
20 FT WIND DIR..W   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..3   4   4   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......300 200 200 200 300

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 64.
RH..................MAX 75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........55     35     35     12     48     48
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............81     76     71     68     67     66
RH..............35     47     63     73     73     73
20 FT WIND......W 4    W 3    SW 1   S 1    S 3    S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5                    5      5

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110816.SOUTH.01/APX