FNUS75 KBOU 162132 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR EMERALD SAR...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 332 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SCATTERED AND QUICK MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE QUICK PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE CLEARING OUT. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 2000. AFTER 2000...THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO STABILIZE WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE STATE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE SLOW-MOVING AS WEAK-MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(65-75%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES UNTIL 2000...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-46. MAX HUMIDITY........72-80%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHEAST 7-13 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(55-65%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-70. MIN HUMIDITY........20-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9600-10600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-50. MAX HUMIDITY........40-48%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72. MIN HUMIDITY........14-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9400-10400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR EMERALD SAR. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/16-15 56 30 9 64 34 W 7 7 3 4 W36 9757 W22 183437 E 08/16-16 56 30 9 64 35 NW 5 5 3 4 W36 9780 W22 181108 E 08/16-17 56 30 9 62 37 N 3 3 3 4 W35 9804 W21 178779 E 08/16-18 60 23 5 64 35 N 2 2 3 3 W35 9827 W21 176451 E 08/16-19 60 23 5 62 39 NE 3 3 3 3 W35 7500 W17 124891 V 08/16-20 60 23 5 59 44 E 6 6 3 3 W35 5173 SW13 73331 G 08/16-21 60 23 5 57 49 SE 8 13 3 3 W35 2845 SW 9 21771 P 08/16-22 60 23 5 55 53 SE 8 13 3 3 W35 2007 SW 8 14986 P 08/16-23 60 23 5 53 58 SE 7 7 3 3 W35 1169 S 6 8201 P 08/17-00 45 8 2 51 64 SE 6 6 3 1 W35 331 S 5 1416 P 08/17-01 45 8 2 48 70 S 6 6 3 1 W35 314 S 6 1457 P 08/17-02 45 8 2 47 74 S 5 5 3 1 W35 297 SW 6 1499 P 08/17-03 45 8 2 46 75 S 5 5 3 1 W35 281 SW 6 1540 P 08/17-04 45 8 2 45 75 SW 5 5 3 1 W35 282 SW 7 1564 P 08/17-05 45 8 2 45 75 SW 5 5 3 1 W35 283 W 7 1588 P 08/17-06 29 6 1 45 72 W 5 5 3 1 W35 284 W 7 1612 P 08/17-07 29 6 1 46 68 W 5 5 3 1 W33 1054 W 8 9135 P 08/17-08 29 6 1 51 56 W 5 5 3 1 W33 1823 W 9 16658 P 08/17-09 29 6 1 55 46 W 5 5 3 1 W33 2593 W10 24180 P 08/17-10 29 6 1 58 39 W 5 5 3 1 W33 4465 W13 57859 F 08/17-11 29 6 1 61 34 SW 5 5 3 1 W33 6337 W15 91537 G 08/17-12 51 20 4 63 31 SW 6 6 3 3 W33 8209 W17 125215 V 08/17-13 51 20 4 65 28 SW 7 7 3 3 W33 9115 W18 147613 V 08/17-14 51 20 4 66 26 W 8 14 3 3 W33 10021 W20 170011 E 08/17-15 51 21 4 67 25 W 9 15 3 3 W33 10927 W21 192410 E 08/17-16 51 21 4 67 24 W 9 14 3 3 W36 10745 W21 197083 E 08/17-17 51 21 4 66 23 W 8 13 3 3 W38 10564 W22 201757 E 08/17-18 21 10 2 66 24 W 7 7 3 2 W39 10382 W23 206431 E 08/17-19 21 10 2 64 25 W 7 7 3 2 W38 7869 W20 147732 V 08/17-20 21 10 2 61 28 W 7 7 3 2 W37 5355 W16 89032 G 08/17-21 21 10 2 59 31 W 7 7 3 2 W36 2842 W13 30333 P 08/17-22 21 10 2 55 37 W 8 14 3 2 W36 1134 W10 9965 P 08/17-23 21 10 2 52 41 W10 16 2 2 W38 703 W10 6315 P 08/18-00 6 0 0 51 42 W12 18 2 1 W39 272 W12 2664 P 08/18-01 6 0 0 50 43 W12 18 2 1 W41 259 W12 2602 P 08/18-02 6 0 0 49 43 W12 18 2 1 W43 246 W12 2540 P 08/18-03 6 0 0 49 41 W12 18 2 1 W45 232 W13 2478 P 08/18-04 6 0 0 48 40 W13 20 2 1 W45 242 W13 2677 P 08/18-05 6 0 0 49 38 W14 22 3 1 W46 251 W13 2877 P 08/18-06 1 0 0 49 37 W14 22 3 1 W46 260 W14 3076 P 08/18-07 1 0 0 49 35 W12 20 4 1 NW46 943 W14 11508 P 08/18-08 1 0 0 52 33 W 9 15 4 1 NW46 1626 W14 19940 P 08/18-09 1 0 0 57 27 W 8 13 5 1 NW46 2309 W14 28372 P 08/18-10 1 0 0 60 24 W 9 14 5 1 NW45 4175 W18 77958 G 08/18-11 1 0 0 62 23 W10 16 5 1 NW43 6041 W22 127544 V 08/18-12 10 5 1 66 20 W12 18 5 1 NW41 7908 NW25 177129 E 08/18-13 10 5 1 69 18 W12 18 4 1 NW39 8955 W25 192494 E 08/18-14 10 5 1 70 17 W10 17 4 1 NW37 10001 W24 207858 E 08/18-15 10 5 1 69 17 W10 16 3 1 NW35 11048 W23 223223 E 08/18-16 10 5 1 70 16 W12 17 3 1 NW32 10124 W23 199125 E 08/18-17 10 5 1 69 17 W12 18 3 1 W30 9201 W22 175027 E 08/18-18 52 5 1 67 18 W12 18 4 1 W28 8277 W21 150928 E 08/18-19 52 5 1 65 20 W 9 15 5 1 W25 5861 W16 102153 V 08/18-20 52 5 1 61 24 W 6 6 6 1 W24 3445 W10 53377 F 08/18-21 52 5 1 58 29 W 3 3 6 1 W22 1029 W 5 4602 P 08/18-22 52 5 1 55 33 W 3 3 6 1 W21 771 W 5 3405 P 08/18-23 52 5 1 52 38 SW 3 3 5 1 W20 513 SW 5 2208 P 08/19-00 54 0 0 51 41 SW 5 5 4 1 SW20 255 SW 5 1010 P 08/19-01 54 0 0 49 45 W 6 6 4 1 SW21 254 SW 6 1196 P 08/19-02 54 0 0 48 46 W 6 6 3 1 SW22 254 W 6 1381 P 08/19-03 54 0 0 48 47 W 7 7 3 1 SW23 253 W 7 1567 P 08/19-04 54 0 0 47 47 W 8 13 3 1 SW23 263 W 8 1938 P 08/19-05 54 0 0 48 46 W 9 14 3 1 SW23 272 W 9 2310 P 08/19-06 29 0 0 48 46 W 9 15 3 1 W23 282 W12 2682 P 08/19-07 29 0 0 49 45 W 8 14 3 1 W22 930 W12 9465 P 08/19-08 29 0 0 50 43 W 7 7 3 1 W23 1578 W12 16248 P 08/19-09 29 0 0 56 37 W 6 6 3 1 W24 2225 W12 23031 P 08/19-10 29 0 0 58 34 W 5 5 3 1 W29 4401 W14 58599 F 08/19-11 29 0 0 60 33 W 5 5 3 1 W33 6577 W15 94168 G 08/19-12 63 21 4 64 30 W 5 5 3 3 W37 8753 W17 129736 V 08/19-13 63 21 4 67 29 W 5 5 3 3 W37 9387 W17 137682 V 08/19-14 63 21 4 67 32 W 5 5 2 3 W33 10021 W17 145628 V 08/19-15 63 21 4 67 35 W 5 5 2 3 W30 10655 W16 153574 E 08/19-16 63 21 4 68 36 W 5 5 2 3 W28 10125 W16 143145 V 08/19-17 63 21 4 67 40 W 5 5 2 3 NW25 9595 W16 132716 V 08/19-18 63 21 4 65 43 W 5 5 2 3 NW23 9065 W15 122286 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...TIM PHILLIPS REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20110816.EMERA.01/BOU