FNUS74 KHUN 161733 FWSHUN SPOT FORECAST FOR LIRI BOG BURN...NPS-LIRI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 CDT ON AUGUST 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUE BETWEEN 38 TO 41 PERCENT AT THE IGNITION TIME. NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 MPH. HOWEVER...SOME RISES TO 10 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING TO A PEAK OF 6500 FEET WITH DISPERSION INDEX PEAKING AT AROUND 33 BY 5-6 PM. THEN TONIGHT...MIXING HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY 7-8 PM WITH DISPERSION DROPPING CLOSE TO 0 AFTER 10 PM. THE PREVAILING WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT. IT WILL STILL BE MAINLY DRY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEST OF BURN SITE) WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER (7000-8000 FEET) BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL WITH 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO HIGHER DISPERSION VALUES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....83 TO 85. MIN HUMIDITY........38 TO 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 TO 6500 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............79 84 84 RH..............55 42 39 20 FT WIND......N 3 N 3 N 3 MIX HGT (FT)....5800 5800 6500 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 5 NE 5 N 5 DISPERSION IDX..30 30 33 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....62 TO 64. MAX HUMIDITY........90 TO 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL BY 9 PM INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............83 79 76 73 70 67 RH..............41 48 54 61 69 78 20 FT WIND......N 2 NE 1 E 0 E 0 NE 0 N 0 MIX HGT (FT)....6500 5900 300 300 300 200 TRANSPORT WIND..N 5 NE 6 N 5 N 5 NE 6 NE 5 DISPERSION IDX..33 41 2 2 3 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....88 TO 90. MIN HUMIDITY........38 TO 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100-7700 FT AGL BEGINNING 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............64 68 78 84 88 89 RH..............89 79 57 46 40 38 20 FT WIND......N 1 N 1 W 2 SW 3 S 3 SW 3 MIX HGT (FT)....200 300 6100 6100 7400 7700 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 5 NE 5 S 9 S 9 S 8 S 7 DISPERSION IDX..2 2 4 62 63 55 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...LATIMER REQUESTED BY...NATALIE SMITH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110816.LIRIB.01/HUN