FNUS75 KMSO 161619
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH LOST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1019 AM MDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0938 MDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE FIRE BEHIND
MONDAYS SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT INCREASED
SUNSHINE MAY INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH MUCH
LOWER HUMIDITIES TODAY AND TOMORROW THANKS TO DRIER AIR. A THERMAL
BELT IS HIGHLY LIKELY AT THE MID SLOPE OF THE FIRE TONIGHT FOR POOR
RECOVERIES AND CONTINUED ACTIVE FIRE POTENTIAL. THE BASE OF THE
FIRE SHOULD SEE EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AND GOOD RECOVERIES AT THE
TOP. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND SOME
DECENT HIGHER LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS 25-30 MPH SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
AT THE TOP OF THE FIRE AND BY MID AFTERNOON AT THE BASE. SOME
CHANNELING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE BASE OF THE UNIT FOR POTENTIALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH TERRAIN CUMULUS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78 BASE...59-64 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT BASE...30-35 PERCENT TOP.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    WEST 5-9 MPH AFTER 1300 MDT.
                    TOP OF FIRE...GUSTS 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.TONIGHT...

CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43 BASE AND TOP...45-50 MID SLOPE.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT BASE...70-75 PERCENT TOP.
                    49-54 PERCENT MID SLOPE.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-9 MPH IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
                    TO 15 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE AFTER SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.

.WEDNESDAY...

CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 BASE...63-68 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT BASE...28-32 PERCENT TOP.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 4-8 MPH...BECOMING WEST 9-13 MPH.
                    GUSTS 25-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...ALLEN BRANINE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110816.SOUTH.01/MSO