FNUS73 KUNR 162256
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR ZIMMER FIRE...GREAT PLAINS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
456 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1629 MDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BRINGING DRIER AND
COOLER AIR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...BUT WINDS WILL LARGELY BE TERRAIN-
DRIVEN TONIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FLOW. ALSO FOR
TONIGHT...A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS LATE TONIGHT WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BURN AREA. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR
RETURNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50.
RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT EAST BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/WEST 2-5 MPH THIS
                    EVENING THEN DOWN-VALLEY/SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH BY
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 200 TO 700 FT AGL EARLY THIS
                    EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 3-6 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING UP-VALLEY/
                    NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH AROUND MIDDAY.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND MIDDAY.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...MB
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110816.ZIMME.01/UNR