FNUS73 KAPX 171112 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BLOCK 4...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 712 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RAIN IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED THIS MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HEATING FROM THE SUN WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE NEAR THE BURN SITE. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS KEEPING THINGS DRY YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND IS PRODUCING WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS FEEDING MORE MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 40% THURSDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........76 AT IGNITION...MAX 81. RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1300). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........68 68 87 87 87 87 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............76 78 80 81 81 80 RH..............58 54 51 49 49 51 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......800 11001300130013001200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........87 91 91 57 6 6 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............79 74 69 65 63 61 RH..............54 66 81 90 90 90 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 6 SW 3 SW 2 SW 3 W 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 SMOKE DISP......1100 700 200 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 83. RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000-8900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........8 9 9 19 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 66 78 82 RH..............96 81 50 41 20 FT WIND......W 2G5 W 4G5 W 6G10 SW 7G15 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 100 900 1100 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE THOMPSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110817.SOUTH.01/APX