FNUS72 KMFL 171144 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE ISLAND RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 744 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON AUGUST 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD AND WILL BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. CURRENT RADAR DETECTS SOME SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS THAT ARE MOVING NORTH -WEST BUT AT LEAST 3 HOURS AWAY...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. BUT BY NOON ...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE BURN AREA. BUT THIS SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO GENERATE SHOWERS THAT WILL TURN INTO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 1 PM...WHICH IS MUCH EARLIER THAN TUESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD BUT WIND OUTFLOWS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS CAN COME FROM ANY DIRECTION...DEPENDING ON THE STORMS LOCATION. NO MATTER HOW I ADJUSTED THE INPUTS TIMES...THE COMPUTER INSISTED ON A 7-9-11 HOURLY BREAKDOWN INSTEAD OF YOUR REQUEST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 91. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 58 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 47. LVORI...............4. CHANCE OF PCPN......MISSING. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........30 31 36 40 40 40 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP............83 91 89 85 85 81 RH..............77 58 61 70 70 77 20 FT WIND......SE 1 SE 4 SE 4 SE 6 E 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 1 SE 4 SE 4 SE 6 E 5 E 5 EYE LEVEL WIND.. 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 3200 3200 4400 4000 4000 MIXNG WIND......SE 2 SE 7 SE 7 SE 12 E 10 E 10 DISPERSION IDX..14 37 37 43 47 47 LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).M M M M M 30 LAL.............2 2 2 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 76. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1700 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....47 DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE EVENING. LVORI...............6. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 90. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 66 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 7 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 7 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 26 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 50 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 39 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LVORI...............3. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...ROTHFUSS REQUESTED BY...CLAYTON CAMBLIN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110817.PINEI.02/MFL