FNUS73 KAPX 181254 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BRITTLE BLOCK 1...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 854 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY AND RELATIVE HUMDITIES MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 MPH. THERE WILL BE DECENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...JUST SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER...DROPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........80 AT IGNITION...MAX 85. RH..................39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6600-7800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1300). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........M M M M M M WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............80 83 83 83 83 82 RH..............39 35 35 33 31 31 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 6 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......600 700 700 900 12001300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 29 29 WEATHER COV..... PTY WEATHER TYPE.... FOG TEMP............80 77 74 71 68 65 63 61 59 57 56 56 RH..............33 42 45 53 62 70 75 81 83 86 86 83 20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......1100900 500 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 85. RH..................MIN 34 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700-7900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........29 59 59 59 66 66 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 60 71 79 82 83 RH..............86 79 55 43 37 36 20 FT WIND......W 1 W 2 SW 3 SW 5 S 7 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 300 800 900 1200 $$ FORECASTER...JUSTIN ARNOTT REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE THOMPSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110818.BRITT.02/APX