FNUS73 KAPX 181050 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BLOCK 4...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 650 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0635 EDT ON AUGUST 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING TODAY. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE SO THAT THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AND THEN PICK UP A BIT AS THE DEEPER MIXING WILL BRING THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. WITH THE DEEP MIXING...A LAKE BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........61 AT IGNITION...MAX 85. RH..................100 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900-8400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1400). TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........7 7 10 10 10 16 16 16 16 16 16 30 WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS ARS ARS WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG FOG TEMP............59 61 64 66 71 76 80 83 82 83 83 82 RH..............100 93 84 78 62 50 39 33 33 31 30 30 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW W W W W W W SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 3 4 4 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST. HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 100 300 600 600 700 700 900 12001400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 55. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 3 TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........30 26 26 26 29 29 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............80 74 67 62 58 55 RH..............33 45 64 75 83 86 20 FT WIND......SW 6 W 5 W 4 W 2 W 1 W 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......1200 500 100 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86. RH..................MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600-7900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........29 58 58 66 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 64 79 83 RH..............90 69 41 34 20 FT WIND......W 1 W 2G5 SW 5G10 S 7G15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 800 1100 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE THOMPSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110818.SOUTH.01/APX