FNUS73 KAPX 181421 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE 2...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1021 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVE HUMDITIES MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...LIKELY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 22 AND 27 PERCENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 MPH. THERE WILL BE GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...JUST SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER...DROPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........79 AT IGNITION...MAX 84. RH..................36 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH POSSIBLE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6500-7200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1400). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........M M M M M M WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............79 82 81 82 82 81 RH..............36 30 30 28 26 26 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......800 900 1000110013001400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........23 23 27 27 27 27 27 27 37 37 37 37 WEATHER COV..... PTY WEATHER TYPE.... FOG TEMP............80 77 74 70 65 61 58 56 55 53 52 52 RH..............27 35 40 51 67 78 86 90 90 93 93 93 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......13001100700 400 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 84. RH..................MIN 28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100-8100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1500). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........37 15 15 24 63 63 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............52 56 68 77 80 82 RH..............93 84 57 41 34 30 20 FT WIND......W 1 SW 2 SW 4 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 400 1000 1300 1500 $$ FORECASTER...JUSTIN ARNOTT REQUESTED BY...TOM VIERS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110818.SUNRI.01/APX