FNUS75 KBOU 191116 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR STRATTON...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 509 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY MID DAY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...NO STRONG WINDS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT HOLDING IN PLACE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(25-35%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-87. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTHEAST 5-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...INCREASING TO 13600-14600 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 0300...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....58. MAX HUMIDITY........74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......13000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....83. MIN HUMIDITY........29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...INCREASING TO 11400-12400 FT BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0600. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR STRATTON. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/19-05 19 0 0 59 37 W 7 12 4 1 W20 114 W 7 659 P 08/19-06 31 1 0 58 39 W 7 12 4 1 W18 109 W 7 693 P 08/19-07 31 1 0 58 40 W 6 6 4 1 W17 1748 W 9 19950 P 08/19-08 31 1 0 66 30 NW 5 5 4 1 W16 3386 W12 39206 P 08/19-09 31 1 0 76 21 NW 5 5 4 1 W15 5025 NW14 58462 F 08/19-10 31 1 0 79 19 NW 6 6 4 1 W14 8051 W12 69990 G 08/19-11 31 1 0 83 17 NE 8 8 4 1 W12 11077 W 9 81518 G 08/19-12 66 15 3 86 16 NE 9 14 4 3 W 9 14104 W 8 93045 G 08/19-13 66 15 3 85 17 E 9 14 4 3 SW 7 14269 W 7 80673 G 08/19-14 66 15 3 86 18 E 9 9 3 3 SW 5 14434 SW 6 68301 G 08/19-15 67 29 8 87 19 E 8 8 3 4 SW 3 14600 S 5 55929 F 08/19-16 67 29 8 87 20 E 8 8 3 4 SW 6 14081 S 6 68035 G 08/19-17 67 29 8 86 22 SE 7 7 3 4 SW10 13562 SW 7 80142 G 08/19-18 67 29 8 85 25 SE 7 7 3 4 W13 13043 SW 8 92249 G 08/19-19 67 29 8 81 31 S 7 7 3 4 W15 9364 SW10 69091 G 08/19-20 67 29 8 74 42 S 7 7 3 4 W15 5685 S12 45934 F 08/19-21 67 29 8 68 54 S 7 7 3 4 W14 2006 S13 22776 P 08/19-22 48 29 8 66 62 S 7 7 3 4 NW13 1597 S12 17365 P 08/19-23 48 29 8 65 67 S 8 8 3 4 NW10 1188 S10 11953 P 08/20-00 30 5 1 63 71 SW 8 8 3 1 NW 8 779 S 9 6542 P 08/20-01 30 5 1 63 73 SW 8 8 3 1 NW 8 648 SW 8 4861 P 08/20-02 30 5 1 62 74 SW 8 8 3 1 NW 8 517 SW 6 3181 P 08/20-03 55 0 0 62 70 W 7 7 3 1 W 9 385 SW 5 1501 P 08/20-04 55 0 0 60 69 W 6 6 3 1 W10 345 SW 5 1295 P 08/20-05 55 0 0 59 66 W 6 6 2 1 W13 305 W 5 1090 P 08/20-06 7 0 0 58 64 W 5 5 2 1 W15 265 W 3 884 P 08/20-07 7 0 0 58 67 NW 3 3 2 1 NW15 1435 W 5 5952 P 08/20-08 7 0 0 64 55 CALM 1 3 1 NW16 2605 NW 5 11019 P 08/20-09 8 7 1 71 45 CALM 1 3 1 NW16 3775 NW 5 16087 P 08/20-10 8 7 1 76 38 E 2 2 3 1 NW18 6620 NW 7 47353 F 08/20-11 8 7 1 80 33 E 3 3 3 1 NW20 9465 NW 8 78619 G 08/20-12 66 33 12 82 31 E 5 5 3 4 W21 12310 W10 109885 V 08/20-13 66 33 12 82 31 E 6 6 3 4 W22 12253 W10 106142 V 08/20-14 66 33 12 82 30 E 7 7 2 4 W22 12195 W 9 102398 V 08/20-15 75 33 12 83 29 SE 7 7 2 4 W23 12137 W 9 98655 G 08/20-16 75 33 12 83 30 SE 7 7 2 4 W23 11690 W 8 88192 G 08/20-17 75 33 12 82 32 SE 7 7 2 4 W23 11243 SW 8 77728 G 08/20-18 64 19 4 81 34 E 7 7 2 3 W22 10797 SW 7 67265 G 08/20-19 64 19 4 78 38 SE 7 7 2 3 W20 7721 SW 9 51023 F 08/20-20 64 19 4 71 47 SE 6 6 2 3 W17 4645 S12 34781 P 08/20-21 64 19 4 67 56 S 6 6 2 3 W16 1568 S14 18540 P 08/20-22 64 19 4 65 59 S 6 6 2 3 W16 1284 S13 14937 P 08/20-23 64 19 4 64 61 S 6 6 2 3 W16 1000 S13 11334 P 08/21-00 37 3 1 62 63 S 6 6 2 1 NW16 716 S13 7732 P 08/21-01 37 3 1 62 65 SW 6 6 3 1 W15 558 S10 5539 P 08/21-02 37 3 1 60 68 W 7 7 3 1 W14 400 SW 8 3346 P 08/21-03 37 3 1 60 67 W 7 7 4 1 W12 242 W 6 1154 P 08/21-04 37 3 1 59 66 W 7 7 4 1 W12 214 W 6 1012 P 08/21-05 37 3 1 59 65 W 7 7 4 1 W10 187 W 6 869 P 08/21-06 34 3 1 58 65 W 6 6 4 1 W10 159 W 6 727 P 08/21-07 34 3 1 58 67 W 5 5 4 1 W 9 1769 W 6 8362 P 08/21-08 34 3 1 66 53 W 2 2 4 1 W 8 3380 NW 6 15997 P 08/21-09 34 5 1 76 38 CALM 1 4 1 W 7 4990 NW 6 23632 P 08/21-10 34 5 1 79 33 CALM 1 4 1 NW 7 7804 NW 5 31658 P 08/21-11 34 5 1 83 29 CALM 1 3 1 NW 7 10618 NW 5 39684 P 08/21-12 64 32 11 86 26 CALM 1 3 4 NW 6 13432 NW 5 47709 F 08/21-13 64 32 11 86 26 SE 2 2 3 4 NW 6 12917 NW 3 37864 P 08/21-14 64 32 11 85 27 S 2 2 3 4 N 7 12402 NW 2 28018 P 08/21-15 64 32 11 83 29 SW 3 3 3 4 N 6 11887 NW 2 18173 P 08/21-16 64 32 11 81 31 SW 5 5 3 4 N 5 9759 NW 2 17019 P 08/21-17 64 32 11 79 34 W 5 5 3 4 E 3 7631 NW 2 15866 P 08/21-18 61 32 11 77 37 W 6 6 3 4 E 2 5503 NW 3 14713 P 08/21-19 61 32 11 74 40 W 6 6 3 4 E 3 3870 W 6 11453 P 08/21-20 61 32 11 72 43 W 7 7 3 4 S 6 2237 W 7 8194 P 08/21-21 61 32 11 70 46 W 7 7 3 4 S 7 604 W 9 4935 P 08/21-22 61 32 11 67 48 W 8 8 3 4 S 7 494 W 9 4076 P 08/21-23 61 32 11 66 50 W 8 8 2 4 SW 8 385 W 9 3217 P 08/22-00 21 4 1 64 50 W 9 14 2 1 SW 8 275 W10 2359 P 08/22-01 21 4 1 62 51 W10 15 2 1 SW 8 248 W10 2299 P 08/22-02 21 4 1 61 51 W12 16 2 1 SW 8 221 W12 2239 P 08/22-03 21 4 1 60 51 W12 17 2 1 SW 8 193 W13 2180 P 08/22-04 21 4 1 60 50 W12 16 2 1 W 7 229 W13 2435 P 08/22-05 21 4 1 61 50 W10 15 2 1 NW 6 265 W12 2690 P 08/22-06 21 12 2 62 47 W 9 14 2 2 NW 5 301 W12 2944 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SCOTT MOLINARI REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110818.STRAT.01/BOU