FNUS72 KMLB 181030
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP F6...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW IN PLACE, ALONG WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. TODAY'S FORECAST IS
COMPLICATED A LITTLE BY SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER AND OFFSHORE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ARE CURRENTLY NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE BURN SITE.
IT IS ASSUMED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAIN ITSELF OUT OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS, WITH DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING OFF AGAIN UNTIL
LATE MORNING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GENERALLY OCCURS
BETWEEN ABOUT NOON AND 3 PM WITH THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND FAR
ENOUGH BY MID AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THINGS OUT PRECIP-WISE.

WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FOR THE
MOST PART. THEY WILL START OFF LIGHT SOUTHEAST, THEN SHOULD BACK TO
ESE OR STRAIGHT EAST FOR A TIME IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE THE PASSAGE
OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE-SE.

DISPERSION IS GENERALLY POOR TO FAIR ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER.
HOWEVER THE BEST LDSI VALUES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAPPEN TO BE
OVER EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY, DUE TO A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE TRANSPORT LAYER.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4600 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....37.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....    LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....    TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............84  87  88  88  89  88  87  86  85  84  82  82
RH..............72  65  66  66  64  66  68  70  72  74  79  79
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  ESE ESE  E   E  ESE ESE ESE SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   9   10  12  12  12  12  12  12  9   7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.    11  13  15  15  15  15  15  15  11

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-900 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7.
LVORI...............5.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-4300 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....55.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...CRISTALDI
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110818.JDSPF.01/MLB