FNUS75 KRIW 191119
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR INITIAL ATTACK 359...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
519 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2027 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE FIRE AREA
TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH WESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HIGHER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO
THIS PATTERN ON SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25 PERCENT). BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
                    WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING PRIMARILY
                    AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 4-7 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    8 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AROUND 1400.  WIND
                    WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME GUSTY ERRATIC...DOMINATED
                    BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS IN THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTS
                    OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 15 TO
                    20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (36000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (116300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-56.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-56 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND WILL DOMINATE
                    THROUGH 1900 WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
                    OTHERWISE WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING NORTH 4-8 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300-8300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2800-3800 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (111000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (31500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH IN THE MORNING.  WEST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINATED
                    BY ERRATIC CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8600-9600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (71100
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...PAUL FISCHER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110818.INITI.02/RIW