FNUS75 KBOU 191838 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELKHORN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1235 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH IF A STORM DOES MOVE ACROSS THE BURN AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MININUM HUMIDITY LEVELS AROUND 25%-30%. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS 10-15 MPH. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .THIS AFTERNOON... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73. MIN HUMIDITY........24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000-12000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50. MAX HUMIDITY........70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0900 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....71. MIN HUMIDITY........37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9600-10600 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELKHORN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/19-12 82 23 5 70 24 SW13 21 3 3 SW17 11129 W10 96184 G 08/19-13 82 23 5 71 24 SW13 20 3 3 SW14 11425 W 9 86466 G 08/19-14 82 23 5 72 24 SW12 20 3 3 SW10 11721 SW 8 76748 G 08/19-15 74 36 14 73 25 SW12 18 3 4 W 8 12017 SW 7 67030 G 08/19-16 74 36 14 72 27 SW10 17 3 4 W10 11363 SW 7 70512 G 08/19-17 74 36 14 71 30 W10 16 3 4 W15 10708 SW 8 73994 G 08/19-18 74 36 14 70 33 W 9 15 3 4 W18 10053 W 9 77475 G 08/19-19 74 36 14 69 35 W 9 14 3 4 W20 6891 SW10 53559 F 08/19-20 74 36 14 64 42 SW 8 14 3 4 W18 3729 S10 29644 P 08/19-21 74 36 14 60 49 S 8 13 3 4 W17 567 S12 5728 P 08/19-22 68 36 14 57 54 SW 8 13 3 4 W15 471 S12 4608 P 08/19-23 68 36 14 56 58 SW 8 13 3 4 NW12 375 SW10 3487 P 08/20-00 29 4 1 54 63 SW 8 13 3 1 NW10 279 SW 9 2367 P 08/20-01 29 4 1 52 67 SW 8 13 3 1 W10 260 SW 9 2061 P 08/20-02 29 4 1 51 69 SW 7 7 3 1 W10 240 SW 8 1755 P 08/20-03 27 0 0 52 67 SW 7 7 3 1 W13 220 SW 8 1449 P 08/20-04 27 0 0 50 70 SW 7 7 3 1 W15 213 W 7 1330 P 08/20-05 27 0 0 50 70 SW 6 6 3 1 NW18 205 W 7 1211 P 08/20-06 27 0 0 50 70 SW 6 6 3 1 NW21 198 W 7 1092 P 08/20-07 27 0 0 51 69 W 5 5 3 1 NW20 1622 W 8 13605 P 08/20-08 27 0 0 58 54 W 3 3 3 1 NW20 3046 NW 9 26118 P 08/20-09 24 10 2 62 47 W 3 3 3 2 NW20 4471 NW10 38630 P 08/20-10 24 10 2 64 44 W 3 3 3 2 NW18 6453 NW10 58838 F 08/20-11 24 10 2 66 41 NW 3 3 3 2 W18 8435 NW10 79045 G 08/20-12 68 40 18 68 37 NW 3 3 3 4 W20 10416 W12 99252 G 08/20-13 68 40 18 69 37 N 3 3 3 4 W22 10517 W12 103886 V 08/20-14 68 40 18 70 37 NE 3 3 3 4 W24 10618 W12 108519 V 08/20-15 71 40 18 71 38 E 3 3 3 4 W26 10719 W13 113152 V 08/20-16 71 40 18 70 39 E 6 6 3 4 W28 10009 W10 92184 G 08/20-17 71 40 18 69 42 E 7 7 3 4 W26 9300 W 8 71216 G 08/20-18 70 22 4 68 43 SE 9 14 3 3 W25 8590 SW 7 50248 F 08/20-19 70 22 4 67 45 SE 9 15 3 3 W24 6248 SW 9 39604 P 08/20-20 70 22 4 63 51 SE 9 15 3 3 W22 3906 S12 28960 P 08/20-21 70 22 4 59 58 S 9 14 3 3 W21 1563 S14 18315 P 08/20-22 70 22 4 57 60 S 9 9 3 3 W21 1186 S13 13572 P 08/20-23 70 22 4 56 61 S 8 8 3 3 NW22 809 S12 8829 P 08/21-00 42 3 1 54 63 S 8 8 3 1 NW22 432 S10 4086 P 08/21-01 42 3 1 52 65 S 8 8 3 1 NW20 340 S 9 3052 P 08/21-02 42 3 1 51 68 SW 7 7 3 1 NW17 249 SW 8 2019 P 08/21-03 42 3 1 52 65 SW 7 7 3 1 NW14 158 SW 7 985 P 08/21-04 42 3 1 51 67 SW 7 7 3 1 NW13 160 SW 7 941 P 08/21-05 42 3 1 51 66 SW 7 7 3 1 W12 161 SW 7 898 P 08/21-06 35 3 1 50 66 SW 7 7 3 1 W12 163 SW 6 855 P 08/21-07 35 3 1 52 65 W 7 7 3 1 W10 374 W 6 1863 P 08/21-08 35 3 1 55 59 W 6 6 3 1 W10 586 W 6 2872 P 08/21-09 35 10 2 61 48 W 6 6 3 2 W 9 797 W 6 3880 P 08/21-10 35 10 2 64 40 W 6 6 3 2 W 8 3966 W 6 16251 P 08/21-11 35 10 2 67 34 W 5 5 3 2 W 6 7135 W 5 28622 P 08/21-12 70 30 9 70 30 W 5 5 3 4 W 3 10304 NW 5 40993 F 08/21-13 70 30 9 71 32 W 6 6 3 4 NW 2 8390 W 5 34963 P 08/21-14 70 30 9 67 39 W 6 6 3 4 CALM 6475 W 6 28932 P 08/21-15 70 30 9 64 46 W 7 7 3 4 NE 2 4560 W 6 22902 P 08/21-16 70 30 9 63 50 W 7 7 3 4 E 5 3295 W 7 17065 P 08/21-17 70 30 9 61 52 W 7 7 2 4 SE 8 2030 W 7 11229 P 08/21-18 66 30 9 61 52 W 7 7 2 4 S12 765 W 8 5393 P 08/21-19 66 30 9 60 54 W 7 7 2 4 S13 632 W 9 4664 P 08/21-20 66 30 9 59 56 W 8 8 2 4 S14 499 W 9 3934 P 08/21-21 66 30 9 58 57 W 8 8 2 4 S14 366 W10 3205 P 08/21-22 66 30 9 57 56 W 8 8 2 4 SW13 352 W10 3257 P 08/21-23 66 30 9 56 56 W 9 9 2 4 SW12 339 W12 3309 P 08/22-00 27 4 1 56 55 W 9 14 2 1 W10 325 W12 3361 P 08/22-01 27 4 1 54 55 W10 15 2 1 W 9 300 W13 3212 P 08/22-02 27 4 1 53 56 W12 16 2 1 W 8 276 W13 3063 P 08/22-03 27 4 1 52 57 W12 17 2 1 W 8 251 W14 2914 P 08/22-04 27 4 1 52 57 W12 17 2 1 W 8 274 W13 3068 P 08/22-05 27 4 1 52 58 W10 16 2 1 W 9 296 W13 3222 P 08/22-06 24 16 3 53 57 W10 16 2 3 W 9 319 W13 3376 P 08/22-07 28 16 3 55 52 W10 15 3 08/22-08 32 16 3 58 47 W 9 15 3 08/22-09 36 16 3 62 42 W 9 14 3 08/22-10 39 16 3 65 37 W 9 9 3 08/22-11 43 16 3 69 33 W 8 8 3 08/22-12 47 16 3 71 30 W 8 8 3 08/22-13 46 16 3 73 29 W 8 8 3 08/22-14 44 16 3 73 28 NW 7 7 3 08/22-15 43 16 3 73 27 NW 7 7 3 08/22-16 42 16 3 73 27 NW 7 7 3 08/22-17 40 16 3 72 28 NW 7 7 3 08/22-18 39 13 3 71 29 NW 7 7 2 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SCOTT MOLINARI REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110819.ELKHO.01/BOU