FNUS75 KGJT 200015
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY PARK...SJNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
615 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1815 MDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION: AT 610 PM MDT...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE
BURN SITE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALL DIE WITH SUNSET. DEWPOINTS
FALL AND TEMPERATURES RISE JUST A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY. WITHOUT
ANY GOOD UPPER FORCING...THIS KEEPS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-63%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 3-5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST 2-5 AFTER 2000. GUSTY
                    ERRATIC WINDS NEAR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR AFTER 2100.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL OR LESS
                    AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY/NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-93 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 2-5 MPH UNTIL 0900 THEN LIGHT AND
                    VARIABLE. AFTER 1100 WEST 3-6 MPH WITH
                    AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
                    NEAR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO GOOD AFTER
                    1200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH UNTIL 0900 THEN SHIFTING TO .

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 51-61.
HIGHS 78-88. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 50-60.
HIGHS 82-92. WEST WINDS 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 50-60. HIGHS 83-93. NORTH WINDS 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 51-61. HIGHS 83-93.
NORTH WINDS 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN MOORE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110819.DRYPA.02/GJT