FNUS75 KGJT 192003
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
203 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 MDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...BUT A
STRONG TRIGGERING MECHANISM IS ABSENT WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS...LOCAL
WETTING RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-12 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........61-66%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-25800 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1400 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4300-18600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...DURANGO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110819.SAULS.01/GJT