FNUS75 KGJT 202108
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
308 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1530 MDT ON AUGUST 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISSCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD TOWARD THE
FIRE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-8400 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-6600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12700 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS TIPTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110820.SAULS.01/GJT