FNUS75 KGJT 212139
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 MDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED NEAR AND OVER THE BURN SITE
...HOWEVER AN ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SEEN
OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT NORTHWARD EFFECTING THE FIRE SITE THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE
IS SEEN MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%) AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    BY LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-16600 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1100 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31%.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-15100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS TIPTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110821.SAULS.01/GJT