FNUS75 KCYS 231435
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR SQUAW CREEK...BLM CAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
835 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2157 MDT ON AUGUST 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT THE FIRE SITE. THESE WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...
SURFACE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS LIKELY. THESE DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
AND HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD MAKE NEAR THE FIRE
SITE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAY TURN THE WINDS
NORTHEAST AND BECOME A BIT ERRATIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL
SURGE WILL HELP HUMIDITIES RECOVER A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS USHER IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT WEDNESDAYS CONDITIONS TO BE A BIT LESS CRITICAL
THAN THOSE TODAY. ALSO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BURN
SITE...THOUGH COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....94 TO 98.
MIN HUMIDITY........7 TO 11 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH
                    THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD TRY TO TURN WEST/NORTHWEST BY
                    LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 14000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (215400-296200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65 TO 70.
MAX HUMIDITY........45 TO 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    35 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. WINDS
                    SHOULD TURN EAST/NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH AROUND
                    0300.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT (600-90500 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT) UNTIL 1400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 TO 20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY WILL TURN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT 5 TO 15
                    MPH AROUND 1000...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING EXCELLENT (26100-128000 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...MATT KENNADAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110822.SQUAW.02/CYS