FNUS72 KJAX 221629
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GH 4-D...FPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1229 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING. LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE SEA
BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES.

INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IRENE...NOW
MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....35.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........57     69     67
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............93     94     91
RH..............51     49     55
20 FT WIND......SW 7   W 9    SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3800   6000   5100
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8   W 10   SW 10
DISPERSION INDX.29     26     34
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     40     40
LAL.............3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........67     58     58     58     34     34
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............89     83     79     77     76     74
RH..............59     72     81     87     92     97
20 FT WIND......SW 9   SW 8   SW 6   SW 3   SW 1   SW 0
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5100   4100   4100   2200   200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  W 8    W 8    W 8
LVORI...........6      6      6      6      6      6
DISPERSION INDX.M      M      M      M      M      M
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5200 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 9 TO
                    12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....47.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...PETERSON
REQUESTED BY...STEVEN ELDREDGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110822.GH4D_.01/JAX