FNUS75 KRIW 231651
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLE IN THE WALL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1051 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 276...

DISCUSSION...HOT DRY AND BREEZY TODAY UNDERNEATH A STUBBORN RIDGE.
A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONTANA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THEREFORE THE OVERALL WIND SPEEDS. WE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT TO
ABOUT 12000 FEET ABOVE THE BOTTOM ELEVATION OF THE FIRE...WHERE 28
TO 35 MPH WINDS RESIDE...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE DRYING
AND COMBINE WITH THE ALREADY DRY AMBIENT AIR TO CAUSE EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE LOWER LEVELS
AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
WEST...AND POSSIBLY WILL MIX DOWN AT TIMES CAUSING ERRATIC WIND
DIRECTIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LITTLE TREND NOTED
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOW TEENS...THEY WILL MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS INCREASING WITH
EACH THUNDERSTORM DAY...YET REMAINING LOW.

FOR TODAY
   WEATHER.............PARTLY CLOUDY.
   MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-94 AROUND 6000 FEET.
   MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77 AROUND 9000 FEET.

   MIN HUMIDITY........8-13 PERCENT AROUND 6000 FEET.
   MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FEET.

   20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 12 MPH WITH
                    OCCASIONAL WESTERLY GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH AFTER
1200.

   RIDGE TOP WINDS....WEST AT 25 MPH.

   HAINES INDEX.......5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED GROWTH.

   TRANSPORT WINDS....WEST AROUND 28 MPH.


FOR TONIGHT
   SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.

   MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-58 AROUND 6000 FEET.
   MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 AROUND 9000 FEET.

   MAX HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT AROUND 6000 FEET.
   MAX HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FEET.

   20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 13 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH
                       IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                       4 TO 7 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY
   WEATHER.............SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT)
   TEMPERATURE.........89-92
   RH..................10-13 PERCENT
   20 FOOT WIND........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH
   LAL.................1.
   HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL IN
THE AFTERNOON.
   MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.

FORECASTER...

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 4...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

REQUESTED BY...CHRIS THOMAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE