FNUS71 KBGM 232306 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 292...PA GAME COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 706 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON AUGUST 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS THEN WINDS AND MIXING LAYER INCREASING WHILE HUMIDITY DECREASES. THURSDAY LESS HUMIDITY TO START BUT NOT AS MUCH DRYING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN. WINDS STILL 10 MPH OR LESS. AN UPDATE WILL BE DONE BY 5 AM ON WEDNESDAY. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MAX HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (13400-58400 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR TO POOR (3000-8100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............14 8 11 6 0 3 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................72 68 63 60 59 56 RH..................57 51 60 67 67 72 20 FT WIND..........W 4 S 2 S 2 SE 2 E 2 E 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........2 2 3 4 4 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....58 13 13 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-5900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 28 TO 31 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-5900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 28 TO 31 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (8100-21900 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (102400-141500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............6 7 8 10 13 7 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................57 61 68 74 78 79 RH..................72 67 54 46 42 41 20 FT WIND..........E 1 NE 1 S 3 SW 6 SW 9 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 10 15 15 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 2 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....8 22 22 102 142 142 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1100-1400 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 31 TO 37 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1100-1400 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 31 TO 37 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (79100-119700 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO GOOD TO GOOD (30700-43900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............9 21 35 53 67 78 WEATHER COV......... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................77 73 69 67 65 64 RH..................45 57 68 78 87 90 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 4 S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....120 79 79 44 35 35 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-5100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 TO 32 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 22 MPH LATE. LAL.................2 UNTIL 0700...THEN 3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-5100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 TO 32 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 22 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO GOOD (30700-51100 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (85300-118300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............84 93 93 92 88 63 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY TEMP................63 65 71 76 79 80 RH..................97 90 79 71 67 65 20 FT WIND..........S 2 S 2 SW 3 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 10 LAL.................2 4 4 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....31 51 51 85 118 118 $$ FORECASTER...CHAMPNEY REQUESTED BY...PATRICK MCELHENNY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110824.SGL29.01/BGM