FNUS71 KBGM 240738 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 292...PA GAME COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 338 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON AUGUST 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS THEN WINDS AND MIXING LAYER INCREASING WHILE HUMIDITY DECREASES. THURSDAY LESS HUMIDITY TO START BUT NOT AS MUCH DRYING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN. WINDS STILL 10 MPH OR LESS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-6100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-6100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4200-23400 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (98400-133300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............34 37 40 43 44 44 43 42 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................67 71 74 76 78 79 79 79 RH..................61 53 46 43 40 41 41 41 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......6 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 20 15 15 15 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....23 98 98 98 133 133 133 111 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-2200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 39 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 29 MPH LATE. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-2200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 39 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 29 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (111100 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR TO GOOD (9800-57800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM SKY (%).............41 42 55 64 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................77 71 67 65 RH..................43 61 78 87 20 FT WIND..........S 6G15 S 5G10 SW 3G5 S 2G5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....111 58 43 38 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-5200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-5200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (9800-35200 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (83500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (134600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (75800 KNOT-FT) LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).............79 86 87 84 WEATHER COV.........S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY TEMP................63 68 76 80 RH..................97 87 69 65 20 FT WIND..........S 2G5 SW 3G5 SW 5G10 SW 5G10 LAL.................2 3 4 4 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....10 35 84 135 $$ FORECASTER...HEDEN REQUESTED BY...PATRICK MCELHENNY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110824.SGL29.01/BGM