FNUS75 KRIW 241635 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLE IN THE WALL FIRE...USDA SHOSHONE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1035 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0954 MDT ON AUGUST 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE FIRE AREA IS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAKING IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT LIKE TO MOVE ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE HIGH. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL BE MOVING BY THIS EVENING. AS OF LATE THIS MORNING...IT IS IN EASTERN IDAHO CREATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RECEIVE A RE-ENFORCING SHOT AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 1800 AND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS EVENING FOR THE STORMS TO WORK WITH...WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS MANAGEABLE BUT THE REENFORCING SHOT THIS EVENING WILL KEEP SOME STORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TOMORROW. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...TURNING WESTERLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 MPH AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS MORNING APPROACHES BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC ON THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...ALLEN .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 45-50 ABOVE 9000 FEET. MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 30 TO 35 PERCENT AT MID SLOPE. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO 25 MPH AFTER 1800 AND THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH TOWARD MORNING. LAL.................2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7500-8500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400-3400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (95300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (22500 KNOT-FT) AFTER 0300. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93...EXCEPT 70-74 ABOVE 9000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8600-9600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (30900-67300 KNOT-FT). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...NOT AS WARM. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...ALLEN REQUESTED BY...SHANE DEL GROSSO REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110824.HOLEI.01/RIW